Hasan Zolfaghari

Monitoring agricultural drought has always beenchallenging due to the time lag between the occurrence of precipitation deficitand the onset of plant stress. Common indices such as SPEI typically ignorethis time lag and therefore do not provide a fully accurate picture ofagricultural drought conditions. In this study, the Comprehensive AgriculturalDrought Index (CADI) was applied for the spatiotemporal monitoring of droughtin Iran over the 30-year period from 1995 to 2024. The main innovation of CADIlies in quantifying the time lag of soil moisture response to precipitation andreference evapotra  iration (ET0) using the Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT).This index is calculated by integrating three components—soil moisture,precipitation, and evapotra  iration—as CADI = SMCI × (PCI/ECI). TerraClimatedata with a spatial resolution of 4 km were used as the basis for the analysis.The results showed that the spatial and temporalpatterns of agricultural drought in Iran are not uniform. Contrary to commonexpectations, the most severe droughts occur during the cold seasons (autumnand winter), across a wide expanse of Iran, the mean of CADI during theseseasons is approximately -1.5. January and February were identified as the mostcritical period of the year. Summer, with a mean CADI ranging from about -0.5to +0.5, is regarded as the season with non-drought conditions in Iran.Spatially, the western, northwestern and southwestern regions and the Zagrosslopes were identified as the most persistent hotspots of chronic agriculturaldrought. In these areas, CADI is consistently below -1. The Mann-Kendall testrevealed that the frequency of agricultural drought has increased significantly(p < 0.05) across more than half of the country’s area. Decadal comparisonsconfirm this trend: drought frequency increased by approximately 25–30% in thesecond decade (2005–2014) compared to the first decade (1995–2004), and byabout 40–45% in the third decade (2015–2024) relative to the first decade.Performance evaluation using the AUC criterion showed that CADI outperformsSPEI in all seasons. The AUC range for CADI was 0.516–0.613, while for SPEI itwas 0.263–0.482. The largest performance difference was observed in summer,with an AUC difference of approximately 0.35.This study demonstrates that incorporating soil moisture time lags andsimultaneously integrating variables significantly improves the accuracy of

   This study conducted a comparative analysis of bureaucrats in the political and social systems of the Fatimids of Egypt and the Seljuks of Iran. The primary aim of the research was to identify the main similarities and differences between the bureaucrats and to examine their characteristics and functions within each government. Through the review of historical sources and previous studies, it was observed that Fatimid bureaucrats in Egypt were primarily associated with religious–ideological legitimacy and held a key position in consolidating the caliphate. They were engaged not only in financial, judicial, and administrative affairs but also in promoting Ismaili teachings and supporting religious and educational structures. The study revealed that many Fatimid bureaucrats were selected from diverse social backgrounds, including mawali, trained slaves, and non-Arabs, which reinforced loyalty to the caliph and strengthened the cohesion of the government. In contrast, Seljuk bureaucrats in Iran emphasized individual merit, administrative experience, and professional capabilities. Drawing on traditional Iranian bureaucratic structures and Abbasid experiences, they were able to establish an organized military system and an efficient treasury, playing an effective role in managing finances, administrative offices, and the interaction between military and political power. The research indicated that despite their administrative influence, Seljuk bureaucrats had to collaborate with military elites, which reduced the concentration of their authority compared to Fatimid bureaucrats. Nevertheless, they were able to maintain relative stability in the bureaucratic and financial structures of the state and organize the training of administrative and political elites. The study showed that the most significant similarities between bureaucrats in both systems included their central role in governance, the specialization and division of administrative offices, the separation of duties, and their position as intermediaries between political authority and society. In both governments, bureaucrats functioned not only as administrative instruments but also as levers for enforcing central authority and managing resources across extensive territories. Moreover, both groups played prominent roles in the development of educational and cultural institutions, supporting scholars and scribes, and training elites. However, notable differences were also observed. Fatimid bureaucrats exhibited greater ethnic and social diversity, and their administrative system was highly centralized and based on religious loyalty. In contrast, Seljuk bureaucrats were mostly drawn from urban middle >This study concluded that bureaucracy in both systems, despite ideological and social differences, was a crucial factor in the stability and cohesion of the government, contributing to the consolidation of central authority and the development of administrative, educational, and cultural institutions. The comparative analysis demonstrated that understanding the structure and functions of bureaucrats is key to comprehending political and social developments in medieval Islamic societies, highlighting their essential role in establishing order and ensuring the continuity of governance.    Keywords: Bureaucracy, Fatimids, Seljuks, Political System, Social System

In an increasingly multilingual world, understanding teachers who instruct more than one language is crucial. This study explored how the professional identities of teachers who instruct both English and Persian in Iran shift across contexts and the factors influencing these changes. Using purposive sampling, this multiple case study focused on three teachers with varying experience levels. They taught English in private institutes to Iranian learners who shared their cultural background and Persian to international students at a university. A narrative inquiry and thematic analysis approach was employed within Clarke’s (2009) framework of identity work. The framework involved four axes of identity, namely substance, authority sources, self-practices, and telos. The study found that the language of instruction significantly shaped identity (re)constructions. In English >  

جريان سيال ذهن [G1]  يك اصطلاح روان‌شناختي در روان‌شناسي است، اما مانند بسياري از اصطلاحات ديگر دانش‌هاي علوم انساني بر اثر تحولات جامعه و براي آفريدن الگوهاي نو به ادبيات ورود كرد.جريان سيال ذهن، تكنيكي ادبي در روايت داستان است كه خواننده را به صورت مستقيم با درونيات،احساسات، انديشه­هاي شخصيت­هاي داستان آشنا مي­كند.اين تكنيك معمولا به صورت مونولوگ، تداعي آزاد و حديث نفس، نظم زماني را برهم مي­زند و زمان را از حالت خطي خارج مي­كند تا افكار و خاطرات شخصيت­هاي روايت را بازنمايي كند. درادبيات زبان فارسي و كردي نيز نويسندگان از جريان سيال ذهن بهره برده و آثار ادبي قابل توجهي در اين سبك نوشته­اند كه رمان از گونه­هاي آن است. اين پژوهش كاركرد جريان سيال ذهن را از منظر زيبايي‌شناختي و توليد معنا در رمان «مهمان مهتاب» از فرهاد حسن‌زاده به زبان فارسي و «مردي با كلاه مشكي، پالتوي مشكي و كفش آبي» از فرهاد پيربال به زبان كردي بررسي و اين دو گستر? زباني را از منظر زيبايي‌شناختي جريان سيال ذهن در دو رمان مورد مطالعه بررسي كرده و شباهت و تفاوت هر يك را نشان داده‌است؛ بنابراين، پژوهش پيش روي زيبايي‌شناسي جريان سيال ذهن را از منظر تكنيك­هاي جريان سيال ذهن مانند خودگويي، تك‌گويي، تداعي آزاد و جنبه‌هاي زيبايي‌شناختي مانند توانايي استفاده از زبان ارجاعي و زبان شاعرانه، استفاده از واحدهاي زباني   در دو رمان مورد مطالعه بررسي كرده و به اين نتيجه رسيده­ايم كه فرهاد پيربال و فرهاد حسن زاده از اين تكنيك براي بيان مشكلات ناشي از جنگ و آوارگي، مهاجرت و پناهندگي و تأثير آن بر شخصيت­هاي داستان بهره گرفتهاند. پيربال از لحاظ تخيل و شعرگونگي در زبان، بهتر از فرهاد حسن زاده عمل كرده­است زيرا خوانند? آثار فرهاد حسن زاده­، بيشتر نوجوانان هستند و او رويكرد ساده­نويسي خود را در رمان­هايش رعايت مي­كند.پيربال از تداعي آزاد و حديث نفس بيشتر استفاده كرده و هدفش بازنمايي خاطرات ناخوشايند آغاز پناهندگي شخصيت داستان است. حسن زاده بيشتر تكنيك مونولوگ و تداعي آزاد را به­كار برده­است، همچنين حديث نفس را بيشتر به صورت پرسشي آورده­ كه تأكيدي است بر انديشه­هاي شخصيت داستان.    واژه­هاي كليدي: زيبايي‌شناسي، جريان سيال ذهن، مهمان مهتاب، فرهاد حسن‌زاده، مردي با كلاه مشكي، فرهاد پيربال   [G1]جريان سيال ذهن و موضوعات آن را در دو يا سه سطر در محل چكيده تعريف كنيد.   

Throughout history and across the globe, human life has consistently been exposed to various natural hazards. Drought is one of the most significant climate-related hazards and undoubtedly ranks among the primary and oldest natural disasters, regarded as a silent threat and a disaster without prevention in nature. To quantify the characteristics of drought (such as intensity, duration, and spatial extent), drought indices have been considered effective tools. The purpose of an index is to simply and quantitatively determine the aforementioned three characteristics: intensity, duration, and spatial extent. With this aim, the present study examines the drought status in the country using the Standardized Evapotra  iration Drought Index (SEDI) based on data from 78 synoptic stations, utilizing two CMIP6 models (INM-CM4-8 and INM-CM5-0) under two scenarios,   2-4.5 and   5-8.5, across two statistical periods: the past (1996-2014) and the future (2025-2075). The aforementioned index is based on the comparison of actual evapotra  iration and potential evapotra  iration values. The actual and potential evapotra  iration values, as well as the SEDI index values, were calculated and analyzed separately on both monthly and annual bases for the past and future periods.    According to the research findings, the maximum actual evapotra  iration during the observational period was recorded in three major centers in the southeast of the country, while the minimum was observed along the Caspian Sea and in the northwest corner of the country. The historical evapotra  iration values from the INM-CM4-8 model, except for a limited area along the Persian Gulf coastline, indicated a maximum value of 1420-955 mm, with a minimum of 490-25 mm across most of the country. In the INM-CM5-0 model, in addition to maintaining the existing pattern of the INM-CM4-8 model, a maximum actual evapotra  iration was also evident in the northwest corner. The actual evapotra  iration values from both models during the historical period under the   2-4.5 and   5-8.5 scenarios exhibited a similar pattern to that of the observational period. The potential evapotra  iration values during both the observational and historical periods of the two models revealed a maximum pattern in the southeast, extending towards the south and center of the country, reaching a minimum in the northern strip.    The future actual evapotra  iration values in both models under the   2-4.5 and   5-8.5 scenarios demonstrated similar patterns to the previous patterns, with a limited maximum along the Persian Gulf coastline and in the northwest corner. The projected potential evapotra  iration values from the INM-CM4-8 model under the two scenarios exhibited a maximum in the south and southeast, gradually decreasing in value and intensity towards the north and northeast of the country. The projected potential evapotra  iration values from the INM-CM5-0 model under the   2-4.5 scenario, with the exception of a part of the northwest, exceeded 2559 mm, while in the   5-8.5 scenario, this value was limited to the southeast and southern regions of the country.    The monthly calculated SEDI drought index values during the observational period indicated very severe drought occurrences throughout the country in the warm months of the year. In the historical period of the INM-CM4-8 model, in addition to the warm months, May and June also experienced

   ايران به دليل شرايط جغرافيايي خاص خود، در منطقه‌اي واقع شده است كه در طول يك سال، تحت‌تأثير توده‌هاي هوايي از منابع مختلف قرار مي‌گيرد. اين توده‌هاي هوايي باعث تنوع اقليمي در ايران مي‌شوند. ازاين‌رو تجزيه تحليل تغييرات دما بين روزهاي همسايه مفهومي مهم در مطالعات اقليمي و تغيير اقليم به شمار مي‌آيد و مي‌تواند در برنامه‌ريزي و مديريت كلان در سطوح مختلف سودمند واقع شود. با اين توضيح، هدف اصلي تحقيق حاضر، بررسي و تحليل زماني - مكاني "تغييرات دمايي بين روزهاي همسايه" (TCN)در ايران با استفاده از مدل‌هاي گردش عمومي جو با استفاده از داده‌هاي دماي روزانه ?? ايستگاه همديد كشور با دوره آماري ?? ساله (1990-2014) و سناريوهاي   245،   585 مدل CMIP6 (MIROC6) كه شامل دوره‌هاي تاريخي و پيش‌بيني‌شده (2015 تا 2100) است،   TCN يك شاخص مهم هواشناسي است كه منعكس‌كنندة پايداري دما در كوتاه مدت است. تغيير دماي بين روزهاي همسايه به‌عنوان تفاوت بين ميانگين حداقل و حداكثر دماي روزانه در دو روز متوالي برآورد مي‌شود. مقادير TCN منفي به معناي كاهش دما نسبت به روز قبل و TCN مثبت افزايش دما را نسبت به روز قبل نشان مي‌دهد، درك جامع از TCN در كشف مسائل جديد و تغييرات آب‌وهوايي جهاني يا منطقه‌اي مفيد است علاوه بر موارد معمولي افزايش دما و تغيير ميزان بارش، تجزيه و تحليل داده‌هاي TCN و بررسي تغييرات مكاني - زماني آن نه تنها مي‌تواند به غني سازي پايگاه داده‌هاي اطلاعات آب‌وهواي فعلي كمك كند، بلكه پشتيباني تصميم گيري براي به‌كارآمدن با چالش‌هاي تغيير اقليمي جديد ناشي از تغييرات TCN را نيز فراهم مي‌كند. از شاخص‌هاي آماري براي سنجش ميزان ارتباط و كارايي مدل با داده‌هاي واقعي دماي كشور استفاده شده است. سپس مقادير TCN با استفاده از داده‌هاي تاريخي و آيند? مدل‌هاي گردش عمومي جو (GCM) محاسبه شد. نتايج حاصل از بررسي ميانگين ماهان? تغييرات دما بين روزهاي همسايه در ايران نشان مي‌دهد كه در دوره مشاهداتي بالاترين نرخ TCN به لحاظ زماني مربوط به ماه‌هاي ژانويه، فوريه، مارس، آوريل، مه و ژوئن است از نظر مكاني در شرق و شمال شرقي، غرب، شمال غربي و مركز ايران و كمترين ميزان TCN در ماه‌هاي ژوئيه، آگوست، سپتامبر، اكتبر، نوامبر و دسامبر بيشتر در مناطق شمالي و جنوبي مشاهده مي‌شود و همچنين بررسي ميزان تغييرات TCN در چهار فصل سال نشان مي‌دهد كه فصل زمستان و بهار از ميزان تغييرات TCN بيشتري نسبت به فصل تابستان و پاييز برخوردارند. بررسي ميانگين ماهانه TCN و ميزان تغييرات فصلي TCN در دوره آينده همسو با دور? مشاهداتي و تاريخي كشور است. در نهايت با بررسي تغييرات دما بين روزهاي همسايه بر اساس داده‌هاي پيش‌بيني شد? مدل مي‌توان به اين نتيجه رسيد كه تمام ايستگاه‌هاي همديد كشور در طول همه ماه‌هاي سال يك روند افزايشي را تجربه خواهند كرد.    كليدواژه­ها:

   Abstract   Today, drought, as one of the major and main manifestations of climate change in Iran, has had a wide impact on all aspects of society's life. In the field of agriculture, including agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry, beekeeping and fisheries, the effects of drought are more tangible. Considering that the west of the country, including Kermanshah province, is one of the poles of dryland production of grains and legumes in the country, therefore the annual fluctuations of rainfall and drought can cause significant losses in this field, both to the economy of the region and to the food security of the whole country. Based on this, it is very necessary to know the impact of agricultural drought, using new methods and data, including MODIS remote sensing products, to assess the amount of damage and issue early warnings needed for planning. The main goal of this research is to reveal the time series trend and spatial distribution of agricultural drought in Kermanshah province using MODIS vegetation cover products and then a comparative study on the effect of this drought on the annual yield of two key rainfed crops of Kermanshah province, namely wheat and barley. Dam is the province. In this regard, two categories of data are used. The data of vegetation cover NDVI and land surface temperature LST of MODIS sensor, from which during the statistical period of 2000-2021, the agricultural drought in the growing season (April to September) is revealed in the province, and the second category of data The annual yield of two dry crops, barley and wheat, in terms of tons per hectare, which is obtained from the statistical yearbooks of the agricultural jihad for the same period for Kermanshah province.

  This present study investigated the effect of

النزلازلاز